First poll with McBride in the lead

An InsiderAdvantage.com tracking poll conducted between October 14-19 shows McBride with a 49-45 lead over guv Jeb. A Florida Times-Union columnist writes:

It is becoming increasingly clear that -- fair or not -- Jeb Bush has become the whipping boy of the national Democrats and everybody else who holds him responsible for Al Gore losing the state of Florida in the 2000 presidential election. At the same time, the president is enjoying almost unheard-of favorable ratings; his mere appearance on behalf of a candidate can make the difference.

If these trends continue, the president might have to make Florida his second home as Nov. 5 approaches. Such a strategy could cost Republicans elsewhere and be considered foolish and selfish. On the other hand, the nation might read excessive presidential support for Jeb Bush as admirable ''brotherly love.''

Moreover, President Bush may be forced to heavy-handedly help win the Florida governor's race for Jeb -- a race that's starting to look eerily like the tight presidential race of 2000 -- to maintain the public perception that he himself is strong as he gazes at 2004.

Before anyone gets too excited, note that the poll has an astronomical 6 percent margin of error. I wouldn't bet the farm on those numbers. It'll be interesting to see if additional polls confirm these numbers or whether they are a fluke of the margin of error. If I had to guess, this race will be 50-50 all the way through election day.

(Thanks Atrios.)

Update: MyDD heaps praise on InsiderAdvantage polls:

FWIW, InsiderAdvantage, you'll recall, was the first polling to report that Majette was pulling ahead of McKinney, in the GA primaries; and they were accurate with Linder double-digiting over Barr as well; meanwhile, you'll recall, Mason Dixon (which shows Bush up with the exact opposite numbers) sent out polling just before the primary date that Barr was ahead of Linder by 3%, which Linder won by a 2:1 margin. This isn't meant to discount M-D, but to highlight the accuracy of InsiderAdvantage with GA and FL political elections.

Posted October 23, 2002 09:01 AM | Comments (24)