In a dose of bad news for the Carnahan campaign, a Kansas City Star poll shows her trailing 46-41, with 12 percent of voters undecided. Those numbers are as bad for Carnahan, as they are for Colorado Sen. Allard. Anytime an incumbent hovers in the 40 percent level it spells almost certain doom. And remember, undecideds generally break heavily toward the challenger. (Incidentally, I don't buy the notion that Carnahan isn't an incumbent...)

Also, the poll was conducted Oct. 23-30 -- precisely the time period in which the Wellstone disaster took national center stage. It looks like the even may not have given Carnahan a boost. On the plus side, the pollster himself admits the poll overrepresents Republicans, meaning the race is actually a little closer than the 46-41 results indicate.

In a now-familiar refrain when Democratic candidates are queried about lagging poll numbers, Carnahan's camp claims that their internals show a closer race (though by not releasing them they indicate otherwise), while its GOTV effort will make the final difference.