Cattle Call 2004: 6/11

Last week's rankings: 1) Gephardt, 2) Kerry, 3) Dean, 4) Graham, 5) Lieberman, 6) Edwards, 7) Sharpton, 8) Kucinich, and 9) Moseley-Braun.

This week's rankings:

1. Dick Gephardt
Quiet week, but he's still top dog in that all important Iowa contest. In fact, he seems to be winning the media race for "front-runner" status. That must burn Kerry (the self-annointed one) up, but Gephardt has run a far better campaign.

Still, he can't rest on his laurels. His Iowa numbers continue to look good (the real race is for second place), and NH doesn't really matter (for him). The Feb. 2 races haven't been polled extensively, but once they are, we'll have a better idea of how his candidacy is playing in those critical (for him) states.

And, Gephardt needs a clean Iraq victory to help ease anger amongst the anti-war crowd. It's not looking good in that department.

2. Howard Dean
Continues to show improvement in the polls. Got over 3,000 people to attend his Austin rally. Impressive stuff. Iraq and WMD developments are a boost to his anti-war position.

But much will depend on those all-important Q2 fundraising totals. Remember, all the low-hanging fruit has been picked. While all the candidates needs a strong showing, Dean's numbers are some of the most important (only Lieberman has more at stake). $2.6 million won't cut it this quarter.

3. John Kerry
Is it me, or has Kerry become a prop for stories mentioning Dean? Accuse me of whatever biases you want (my disclaimer is on the left-hand corner), but Kerry has been in a slow decline since his operation.

He's still in solid enough ground that he could turn things around. Remember, it really still is early. But at some point things are going to have to change. Perhaps an internal shakeup is in order? Or maybe a week off from campaigning to regroup and find some new energy.

4. Bob Graham
With his recent kiss-ups of Dean, might he now be running exclusively for VP? His poll numbers are heinous, and his attacks on the administration have really not caught fire, even in the "scandal" atmosphere that's starting to surround the WMD issue.

5. Joe Lieberman
He got Garry South, and for that along he gets the "up" arrow. It's a great catch, regardles sof what you think of South or Gray Davis. But no candidate has more riding on his Q2 fundraising totals than Lieberman. Rumors are that he is lagging, but he could be lowering expectations ahead of the results.

The latest NH poll has him eeking ahead of Gephardt for the all-important third slot in that state. So, not a gangbusting week, but better than most recent.

6. John Edwards
Quiet, quiet, quiet. He set a high bar for fundraising totals. If he comes in significantly less than last quarter he might take a hit.

7. Kucinich
All Jessica Lynch, all the time. It's at least putting him on the map.

8. Al Sharpton
An invisible week.

9. Carol Moseley-Braun
What, does someone have to drag her out of the race?

Others: Clark (might join the race late. Draft movement has received FEC clearance.)

Posted June 11, 2003 06:53 AM | Comments (392)