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Thursday | July 24, 2003

Latest Q-poll results

The latest Quinnipac University poll is out. In the Dem race, the national numbers give Lieberman better news than other recent polls (June 11 numbers in parenthesis):

Lieberman 21 (22)
Gephardt 16 (17)
Kerry 13 (15)
Dean 10 (5)
Edwards 4 (5)
Sharpton 6 (5)
Graham 3 (6)
Moseley-Braun 4 (4)
Kucinich 2 (1)
DK/NA 21 (21)
Of course, the MOE is about 5 percent, which makes the numbers a sort of a wash. But trends-wise, everyone seems to be treading water but Dean, who doubled his support in a month.

But I am particularly interested in these numbers:

5. Suppose the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Lieberman the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote?
Tot
Rep
Dem
Ind
Men
Wom
Lieberman
41
7
80
42
38
44
Bush
51
89
11
48
54
47
6. Suppose the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote?
Tot
Rep
Dem
Ind
Men
Wom
Kerry
40
8
75
39
39
40
Bush
51
88
13
49
53
49
7. Suppose the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Dick Gephardt the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote?
Tot
Rep
Dem
Ind
Men
Wom
Gephardt
42
8
81
42
40
44
Bush
51
89
12
48
53
48
8. Suppose the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Howard Dean the Democrat and George W.Bush the Republican for whom would you vote?
Tot
Rep
Dem
Ind
Men
Wom
Dean
37
6
74
36
38
37
Bush
53
89
15
53
55
52

Everyone seems to be about equal, except Dean, who is lagging a bit behind. Part of that is probably name recognition, since the other three Democrats in this portion of the poll are far better known than the doctor.

But there does seem to be a considerable "gender-gap", which accounts for a large part of Dean's lag. Any ideas on what this could mean?

Posted July 24, 2003 09:52 AM





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