Another poll shows Bustamante lead

I'm seeing a real trend here -- California pollsters are showing Bustamante with solid leads, while the national pollsters tend to place Arnold ahead.

The reasons are simple -- each polling outfit must make certain assumptions as to who will turn out, and how many of them will do so.

If the turnout models assume a high Latino and Democratic turnout, then Bustamante wins and Davis has a fighting chance. If Democrats don't turn out, then Davis is assuredly out and either Arnold or McClintock get to be governor for five months until the next recall election.

The latest California-based poll.

GOVERNOR: Gray Davis (D) -- Recall election
J. Moore Methods (D) for a business client. Sept. 2-3, 2003. N=800 likely voters statewide.
NOTE: J. Moore Methods polls for Cruz Bustamante:

Gov. Davis Recall Question:

Yes, to Remove: 55
No, to Keep: 41
Don't Know: 4

Replacement Ballot Trial Heat:

Cruz Bustamante (D) 35
Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) 26
Tom McClintock (R) 13
Peter Ueberroth (R) 9
Peter Camejo (Green) 2
Arianna Huffington (I) 2
Others 1
Undecided 12

Sorry, but no link again -- I'm getting them from the subscriber-only section of Polling Report.

Posted September 08, 2003 01:15 AM | Comments (49)