Rove's electoral analysis exposed

The White House is in full damage-control mode after its 'confidential' analysis of the 2002 and 2004 elections ended up in the hands of a Democratic staffer. The PowerPoint presentation, stored on a diskette, was found in a park by the staffer, who then made sure it got wide dissemination. (The link points to a .pdf file.)

There is enough material in that presentation to blog for a week. However, two items that immediately caught my eye. The report claims that

• "[There is] no evidence that [the] economy has affected the President's rating"; and
  
• "Americans optimistic about economic future."

That might've been the case late last year, or even earlier this year. But the economy is not in good shape, and the threat of perpetual war, growing deficits, ballooning debt, and steady stream of corporate scandals is effectively killing any early recovery. Indeed, thanks to Bush's minor league handling of the economy, the stock market is back to post 9-11 levels (9-27, to be exact). The consumer sentiment index has also fallen sharply, giving investors new worries. Especially since consumer spending has almost single handedly (along with home sales) propped up the economy. One economist called the consumer sentiment index report "awful." Another said, "Consumers now expect the slowdown to result in significantly less favorable economic conditions during the year ahead."

So much for Rove and co.'s consumer optimism. Much of the presentation's rosier projections assume an improving economy. The fact that the opposite is happening can only mean more problems for Bush and his party.

Posted June 14, 2002 08:02 AM | Comments (1)