Illinois' moderate GOP is disintegrating before our very eyes. The nation's longest uninterrupted string of Republican administrations (26 years!) is about to end. The GOP lucked out in 1998, when the Democrats nominated a candidate to the RIGHT of Gov. Ryan. But their luck has run out.

And unlike other parts of the country, the wingnuts have little do with it. This is all about corruption. While in office those 26 years, every top GOP leader used the trappings of power to feed at the trough. Federal investigators and the press are now wading through the GOP's cesspool of corruption, and the party faces an avalanche of indictments and near-certain voter backlash. And in a cruel twist of fate, the GOP nominee shares the same last name as the embattled governor. (Heck, the governor's name is George Ryan, while the current GOP nominee is Jim Ryan. I still get the two confused, even though I have followed both their careers since the late 80s.)

In any case, conventional wisdom has the Dems sweeping all state offices, retaking control of the state senate, and handily winning the governor's mansion. In the governor's race, Ryan's war chest is below $700K, less than a fifth of Dem candidate Rod Blagojevich's total.

Incidentally, the story link above sports poll numbers showing Blagojevich leading Ryan by 18 percentage points. Those numbers are bunk -- the poll was conducted by Survey USA. I have already explained why these polls are next to useless. Ryan's campaign argues their internal numbers show them behind by "about half as wide" as the Survey USA poll. I would tend to believe them, though I'm not sure saying "we're 10 points down" is a brilliant idea.