Good news! An independent poll shows that Dem challengers Mark Pryor leads GOP Sen. Tim Hutchinson 51-41 percent. The double-digit lead is the first showing Pryor outside the margin of error.

The poll was conducted prior to yesteday's televised debate. Prior Kicked some serious butt, too. Okay, I have no way of knowing that, but sometimes I just have the urge to be blindingly partisan. If anyone has actual analysis of the debate performances, please let us all know in the comments section.

More good news: the poll also shows the Arkansas governor's race tightening, with challenger Jimmie Lou Fisher only seven points back, 49-42 percent. That means Fischer has cut his deficit in half since the last independent poll two months ago. I'll happily be updating the Arkansas races on the right side of this page.

More good news III: Dem chances of picking up a house seat in South Dakota are suddenly looking good. The lone at-large House seat in this heavily Republican state (Bush took 60 percent of the vote in 2000) is currently held by Republican John Thune, who us running for Senate. Thus, while the seat should be safely GOP, it has become anything but. In the latest independent poll on the race, the Democratic candidate Stephanie Herseth leads 44-41 percent against Gov. Bill Janklow. The results are within the margin of error, but if Republicans have to defend seats in their "safe" states, it doesn't bode well for their chances in November.