MyDD reports the GOP barrage of negative ads against Kirk have failed, as Kirk maintains a 38-33 percent lead, with about a third of respondents undecided. Competing polls in Texas have shown Kirk and Cornyn alternating the lead, always about 3-5 points between them. The reason is methodology -- some polls assume black turnout at around 8 percent, other polls assume a larger black turnout -- around 12 percent. Poll models with larger black turnout obviously favor Kirk. So who's right? We'll find out election day.

In South Dakota, GOP senatorial candidate Thune is starting to fade. Sen. Johnson only has a 4-point lead in the latest poll, but had trailed for much of the summer. And Thune has been getting hammered for failing to deliver drought aid to the state from Bush. MyDD also notes that polling in the state has failed to take the heavily Democratic Native American vote.

And, to wrap up this plagarizing post (my Frontline email from the DSCC didn't arrive this week), Dem challenger is within 9 points of Maine Sen. Collins after trailing badly most of the summer. The governor's race in Maine will be a blowout, with the Democratic candidate slaughtering the rest of the field. The governor's race may be worth a few points to Pingree, but she still has a great deal of catching up to do.