MA Guv race tightening

Mitt Romney's pre-primary leads over his Democratic rivals has been erased, as Dem nominee Shannon O'Brien has taken a small (statistically insignificant) lead in Massachusett's gubernatorial race.

The poll, commissioned by the Boston Herald (conservative foil to the more liberal Boston Globe), shows O'Brien with a 45-42 lead. The big question is whether O'Brien's surge is related to a post-primary election bounce, or whether it represents real and hardening support for her candidacy.

One bit of good news is this:

Predictably, the poll shows O'Brien and Romney are strong within their parties - Romney winning 86 percent to 7 percent among Republicans and O'Brien winning 76 to 13 percent among Democrats.

According to those numbers, 11 percent of democrats are undecided compared to only 7 percent of Republicans. Given the large lead Dems enjoy in voter registration in the state, this could indicate a larger percentage of undecideds could break her way.

And O'Brien's campaign may be bolstered by a steady stream of negative economic news, such as a seven-year high in the state's unemployment rate. Such news is commonplace throughout the union, endangering a majority of governors and incumbent parties running this fall.

Posted September 20, 2002 11:35 AM | Comments (3)