Governor races outlook

As of now, the governor's situation looks like this:

Lots of Republicans. Very few Democrats. It's been ironic that Democrats have done well in some of the most conservative states -- the deep south and Indiana. The biggest reason? Pro-gun Democrats. The GOP did well in the midwest and northwest thanks to that endangered species -- the moderate Republican. RINOism is driving them to extinction, thus improving the Democratic Party's chances. And, of course, the GOP dominates the mountain states. That won't change anytime soon.

If the elections were held today, and said elections were decided by the last reported poll, the map would look like this:

Okay, Alaska is a stretch. But you get the idea. The Dems would take over the high-population states of Illinois, Michigan, Rhode Island, and Penn, while snagging Wisconsin, Maine, NM, Arizona, Tennessee, Kansas and Mass. They would lose Alabama, New Hampshire and Hawaii. I'll take that trade.

The Midwest is becoming a solid Democratic bloc, and if the Democratic Party spent some money in Ohio, that state could swing our way as well. Alas, the Dem candidate, while competitive in the polls, will not have enough money to air a single television ad. It's truly a shame.

Now, here's the best case, or, better yet, the "pipe dream" scenario:

Texas and Florida will come down to Get Out The Vote efforts. Dem pickups are quite possible, and would horrify (and embarrass) the White House to no end. New York would be the other huge pickup. In a two-way contest, Gov. Pataki would have no trouble fending off McCall's challenge. However, Pataki faces a vicious attack on his right flank -- a billionaire with a $100 million anti-Pataki budget. By comparison, the "major party" McCall hopes to have around $6 million to play with.

I am convinced Alabama will stay Democratic, despite Gov. Siegelman's ethical problems. Heck, the NRA endorsed him, and his poll numbers are not as bad as they should be. He'll suvive. Wyoming is an interesting call, but the state is wracked by civil war between ranching interests and coal bed methane interests. Democrats have aligned themselves with ranchers, while the GOP with energy. It's shaping up to be a real dogfight and traditional partisan lines have blurred.

The nation would have to experience a political "perfect storm" to make this last map a reality, but hey, it's nice to dream.

Posted September 28, 2002 09:05 AM | Comments (6)