In New York, Carl McCall's gubernatorial challenge is not looking so hot. He's down 16 points in the latest poll, including down six points in heavily Democratic NY City. And, to add insult to injury, the city's teacher's union is expected to endorse Gov. Pataki. The endorsement would be disastrous to McCall, as he's made education a central tenet of his campaign.

Ultimately, McCall's chances are predicated almost exclusively on the success of Tom Golisano -- the big-spending billionaire challenging Pataki from the right. Without Golisano, this race would be a guaranteed Pataki victory. As is, Pataki is still the heavy favorite.

Things look far better for Democrats in Pennsylvania, where Ed Rendell looks to trounce Republican Mike Fisher in the state's governor's race. The latest numbers have Rendell leading 45-30, a far wider lead than two recent polls (which had Rendell leading by 7 and 11 points). And, to make matters worse for Fisher, the undecideds are leaning toward Rendell by a 52-35 margin.

Finally, this Q-poll (via Political Wire) has Connecticut Gov. John Rowland with a commanding lead, 59-37, against his Democratic challenger. This race is over. It'll be one of the rare GOP gubernatorial victories this November.