Poll updates, NH, GA, CT, MI, US

My last poll listed a Democratic poll that had Shaheen ahead by a couple points. Yesterday evening, another poll was released in the race, by American Research Group, giving Sununu a big lead in the race, 55-34. While ARG is non-partisan, the disparity in the polls is striking. My gut feeling is that Sununu is in the lead, but only narrowly.

Any desire to trash ARG polls is tempered by their other recent poll:

George W. Bush's overall job approval rating among all Americans is at 55%, down from 59% in August, according to a new survey by the American Research Group. Also, a total of 32% of Americans rate the national economy as excellent, very good, or good, compared to 49% in August, and 62% rate the national economy as bad, very bad, or terrible compared to 49% in August.

These numbers have to be terrifying not only to Bush and Rove, but also to legislative candidates. And this poll was conducted prior to the receipt of the Q3 401(k) statements. I am convinced the media is underplaying the role of the shitty economy when predicting GOP gains.

Heading down I-93 to Georgia, a couple of polls show a tightening of races. A Public Opinion Strategies poll has Sen. Max Cleland ahead by only two points. Don't sweat this one. The polling firm is a GOP partisan outfit, and their polls are just what their initials (POS) imply. Any doubts about the firm's political biases can be settled here. But, this firm has not been polled extensively (the last non-partisan poll was in March), so it's difficult to gauge the actual status of the race. I don't think anyone is ready to call this race just yet.

Still in Georgia, the governor's race is tightening (as have governor races all across the country), with Democratic governor Roy Barnes leading 45-38. One apparent casualty of the tightening race -- Barnes, who had been running positive ads, has apparently shifted gears and started to go negative.

Finally, two polls on races that have already been all but settled: In the PA governor's race, Ed Rendell maintains his big lead (45-30) over GOP opponent Mike Fisher. Interestingly, Rendell's negatives have not rised despite an onslaught of GOP negative ads. Bag this one. It's over.

While in CT, GOP Gov. Rowland has all but sewed up his reelection. A day after a Q-poll gave him a 22-point lead over Democrat Bill Curry, a UConn poll has him ahead by 14. Yeah, there's an illusion that the numbers are improving, but that probably has to do more with methodology than anything else. Both poll show the big lead, and it's doubtful Curry will come back. Bag this one too. Barring some major bombshell, this one is also over.

Posted October 04, 2002 08:07 AM | Comments (4)