The last pre-election poll of the Arkansas Senate race by the Arkansas State Bureau shows Pryor maintaining his lead 48-43. The results are within the margin of error, making this a statistical dead heat. However, polls have been consistent in giving Pryor a roundabout 10-point lead. This latest poll could mean anything from the traditional tightening of a race as election day looms, to play within the margin of error, to a late surge by Hutchinson. Regardless, Pryor looks good. As the challenger vs. an incumbent, Pryor should lock up the lion's share of the undecided vote (9 percent in this poll), giving him a comfortable margin of victory.

I wouldn't celebrate this one just yet, but Hutchinson is clearly this election cycle's most endangered incumbent.