Poll shows Strickland in the lead

A new Rocky Mountain News poll shows Strickland wwith a narrow 39-38 lead in the Colorado Senate race.

The 1-point lead is no big deal in itself, since it just reaffirms the statistical tie shown in just about every single other poll out there. What is significant is that Allard, an incumbent, can't break the 40 percent mark. Last election cycle, every incumbent below 40 percent in October lost their race. Another bad sign for Allard:

The poll continued to show a gender gap with men favoring Allard 45 percent to 35 percent and women favoring Strickland 42 percent to 31 percent. However, a higher percentage of women are undecided in the senate race - 19 percent of women versus 11 percent of men.

Not only do undecideds generally break for the challenger 2-1, but the fact that most of these are women (who are more likely to vote Dem) is especially good news. I just can't see how Allard can pull this one off.

Posted October 26, 2002 03:54 PM | Comments (20)