Poll updates

In Maryland, GOP guv candidate Ehrlich has opened up a 48-44 percent lead on Kathleen Kennedy Townsend. Townsend is probably running the worst campaign out of any of the major Democratic Party candidates. She has squandered an early lead, a famous name, semi-incumbency (she's currently the MD Lt. Guv), and the heavy Democratic tilt of the Maryland electorate. And she named a Republican as her Lt. Guv running mate.

Despite the article's erroneous assertion that the results are outside the margin of error (I wish I had $.05 for every time a reporter gets this wrong), the fact is that the race is still statistically tied. But if any Democrat deserves to lose, it's Townsend.

Some bad news also out of Wisconsin, where GOP guv Scott McCallum has closed to within two points of Dem challenger Jim Doyle, 38-36. However, the fact that a sitting governor is at 36 percent still would indicate he's in real trouble and should find it difficult to pull through.

A second poll released yesterday by Wisconsin Public Radio gave Doyle a 41-33 lead. He clearly has the lead, though it has shrunk quite a bit in recent weeks.

In Texas, a SUSA poll has Cornyn with a precarious 3-point lead, 43-40. As with South Carolina, SUSA is the only polling outfit that shows a close race in Texas. But most polling outfits have completely underestimated the power of the Dem Texas GOTV effort -- an effort that is currently in full swing and already paying dividends.

That same SUSA poll has Dem guv candidate Tony Sanchez trailing 51-38. However, a killer GOTV effort could easily erase that deficit. I wouldn't say it's likely, but certainly possible.

In Minnesota, Mondale (D) has opened up a real lead against Norm Coleman (R) -- 47-39. Those results are, surprise, outside the margin of error. This is a real lead, and one that will likely increase after the inevitable boost from last night's memorial service.

Surprisingly, in the MN guv race, Independent Party candidate Tim Penny has fallen off the radar screen after leading for much of the race. The GOP's Pawlenty currently has 33 percent, the DFL's Roger Moe has 29 percent, and Penny trails at 19 percent. I expect Moe to get a real boost from last night's revival meeting, in both voter and volunteer support.

This race is off the radar screen, but what the heck. A Marist College Institute Poll shows NY Gov Pataki (R) with a commanding lead over the hapless Dem challenger Carl McCall, 47-27 percent. Conservative Party candidate Golisano pulls up the rear at 17 points. McCall never had a chance, but he refused to play the sacrificial lamb part -- blasting the national party for putting its money into more competitive races. That won't bode well for his future political career.

Another race off the radar screen, but I'll mention it one more time: Ed Rendell (D) leads his hapless opponent, Mike Fisher, also by a whopping 20 points, 55-35.

And in case anyone was worried or scared, you can rest easy: Bernie Sanders seems to have opened up a small lead in his Vermont House race. 68-17.

(Courtesy of Political Wire, Google News, reader emails, and my own bookmark list.)

Posted October 30, 2002 08:06 AM | Comments (21)