McBride seems to be fading

A Democratic poll has McBride narrowly trailing Jeb, 48-45. Seems like good news, but it's the only good news out of Florida. Fairly or unfairly, Jeb is perceived as having "won" the last debate of the campaign, and all the recent independent polls have shown Jeb with comfortable leads.

A Mason-Dixon poll today gives Jeb a solid 51-43 lead, in line with other recent polls. However, chair of Florida's Democratic Party nails it with this quote:

Poe said polls are less important than ground-level organization in the final days. He said labor unions, civil rights groups, education associations and other mainstays of the Democratic Party base will be "getting their people fired up" and produce a big turnout Tuesday.

"The undecideds are so slim that changing people's minds at this point is very difficult," Poe said. "It's now a turnout game."

I don't doubt that Gov. Perry and Cornyn are the preferred choice of all Texans, the question will be whether Democrats can overcome the state's natural bias and win the turnout game. In Florida, I think Jeb has the popularity edge, but his fate is in the hand of each party's respective GOTV effort. It means nothing to have the support of a voter if he or she doesn't cast that all-important vote.

Posted October 31, 2002 08:46 AM | Comments (23)