Latest batch of Zogby polls

I said I wouldn't post until tonight, but what the heck, this is generally good news. pf99, watching "Meet the Press", informed us in the message boards of the new Zogby numbers:

Minnesota
Mondale 50
Colman 45

New Jersey
Lautenburg 54
Forester 38

Arkansas
Pryor 51
Hutchinson 40

Colorado
Strickland 53
Allard 44

Missouri
Carnhan 49
Tallent 48

South Dakota
Johnson 52
Thune 47

Georgia
Cleland 49
Chamblis 49

North Carolina
Dole 52
Bowles 46

Texas
Kirk 48
Coryn 49

Florida guv
Bush 57
Mc Bride 42

Also, Zogby claims the Illinois governor's race is tied, with Ryan getting 43.5, and Blagojevich getting 43.2.

The Illinois numbers definitely raise an eyebrow. Problem is, the consensus numbers (and this race has been polled to death) is a Blagojevich lead in the low double digits. There has been nothing in this race (except the traditional late tightening that most races undergo) to explain this radical a shift in Illinois.

The Florida numbers are disappointing, and I don't doubt that the majority of "likely" voters support Jeb. I believe Zogby uses people who have voted in the last three elections when determining whether a voter is "likely", which severely undercounts many recent immigrants and African Americans. If those two groups vote, and vote heavily, this race will be the dead-heat everyone has expected from day one.

The Georgia numbers are dissappointing. While I still believe Cleland has a small lead (recorded by every single other poll on this race), it will be a dogfight. I think the reverse is true in Texas -- Cornyn probably has a small lead, but it will still be neck-and-neck. GOTV will certainly make the difference in both these races.

The Colorado numbers are startling -- no other poll has shown anything more than a dead heat. Given the low number of undecideds, perhaps Zogby was more insistent people choose a candidate. Most other polls have shown a dead heat in the low 40s, with a large number of undecideds. Has Strickland broken away? I don't know, I find it hard to believe his lead is this big. If so, it's a soft lead, and nothing to bet your life savings on. (Though it could also mean, as expected, that the undecideds are breaking the challenger's way.)

As for the rest, everything looks as it should. All in all, not a bad round for the Dems. If these numbers hold, and the ties go to the incumbent party, the Democrats should pick up two seats in the Senate. I'll gladly take that result.

Posted November 03, 2002 08:27 AM | Comments (89)