GOP will not have a big night

If you haven't already, check out MyDD's post on Gallup's latest generic congressional ballot test. While most polls show the Dems with a narrow lead in that category (ie. "will you vote for a Dem or Rep in your local congressional race"), Gallup seems to be stuck using the wrong methodology -- the 1998 turnout model. However, as MyDD notes, supporters of the party in power are more likely to sit out an election that the energized opposition. Early voting numbers seem to bear out this old political adage -- turnout in Democratic-leaning districts in Texas, Iowa, and Tennessee are breaking records.

Frankly, I'm getting tired of media stories talking about GOP chances of picking up the Senate, when no sane analysis of the political landscape should reach this conclusion. Based on poll numbers alone, Dems should pick up two seats. Real Clear Politics, a right-leaning outfit, has to go into analytical contortions to pull out a GOP Senate takeover (including an Allard victory in Colorado). I think lots of people will have egg on their face come election night. Perhaps it will be me, but probably not.

Part of the problem is that the media, accused for so long of being "liberal", has to go out of its way to appear "fair". If reporters properly analyze the individual races and predict a Dem victory in the Senate and Dem wave in governorships, it will have to endure the wrath of conservatives screaming about "liberal bias". The reverse is not true -- in general, we liberals tend to suffer in silence. We may gripe in places like MWO, but generally, we're a more polite, less reactive group.

So, the media predicts great electoral success for the GOP. If they're wrong, they can write pieces like this:

Nov 6, Washington D.C.-- In a surprise election night sweep, Democrats were able to eke out victories in many contested battleground races, retaining control of the Senate while taking control of the House, confounding political observers closely tracking such races.

You see, their "political observers" were all predicting GOP victories, so they couldn't be "liberal" or "biased".

Bah. The elections are tomorrow. We'll know soon enough who was right, and who misread the political crystal ball. Thank god we're finally going to vote, if only because it will silence GOP spin machine (and its media enablers) predicting big things election night.

Posted November 04, 2002 05:13 AM | Comments (14)