If Lott resigns, then who?

It's times like this when I wish the Political State Report was already up and running (it's getting close to completion)...

As Lott's survival chances continue to dwindle, speculation has begun over who would replace him. Based on this newspaper article, here are the candidates:

Mike Espy. Espy served in the Clinton White House, thus has strong Washington credentials. He is African American, and would help heal some of the wounds the Lott affair has opened. Espy would also help energize black support for Gov. Ronnie Musgrove, who faces a bruising reelection battle next November.

On the negative side, Espy is, well, African American, and no black has been elected to statewide office in MS since Reconstruction.

Mike Moore. MS's attorney general, Moore is white, which would help the Democrats' chances to retain the seat. And, he is rumored to be considering a primary challenge to Musgrove. If the guv appointed him, it would remove one of his biggest rivals, shipped off to DC.

Ronnie Shows: Former Representative, was defeated by Rep. Chip Pickering last month. He's "damaged goods" right now, but supposedly could make a comeback.

Well, given this list, it seems Espy is the natural choice. Ultimately, it seems Musgrove would have to choose between energizing black support, or eliminating a potential rival.

One last note: Larry Sabato, political analyst extraordinaire, claims that the GOP would win a 90-day election hands-down (while a 9-month election would presumably be more competitive). Perhaps we can hear from some locals down in MS, but my gut feeling is that Democrats would be competitive regardless. This would be Louisiana -- the sequel -- and a similar outcome would not be out of the realm of possibility.

(Link via Atrios.)

Posted December 17, 2002 09:24 AM | Comments (57)