Cattle Call Update

OK, the votes are in and have been carefully tabulated and certified by our accounting firm, PriceWaterhouseCoopers&LybrandGrantThorton, and they show the runaway favorite for the 2004 Democratic presidential nomination is . . . Harvey Pitt!

But seriously folks. We had a total of 15 participants who went to the trouble of actually ranking the candidates in numerical order, although one respondent put Florida Senator Bob Graham in 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th place. I have some doubts about his/her objectivity.

That said, the results are as follows:

________________Average______Median

Edwards____________1.3_________1
Kerry______________2.4_________2
Graham____________3.5_________3
Gephardt___________3.5_________4
Dean_______________3.8________3.5
Lieberman___________4.3________ 4
Sharpton____________6.5________6.5
Dodd (1 rating)_______ 7__________7

Sorry about the lines and the cruddy spacing, but I ain't got no stinkin' HTML skills, and it's the best I could do. As you can see, the average/median thing doesn't matter much; the median slightly favors Graham and Dean over Gephardt, big whoop-di-do.

Now that's 15 out of, what, 15 or 20 million Democratic primary voters? Most pollsters probably wouldn't consider that a statistically valid sample, unless of course they're Frank Lutz (badaBOOM).

But I think it's reasonable to conclude that John Edwards had a very strong week, and that John Kerry, who was practically invisible, still has momentum, at least among the cognisceti (I'm going to Rome later in the month, and I gotta work on my Italian).

Here's a summary of some of the comments. Some people didn't follow the instructions (I'm looking in your direction, Idaho) and talked about where they thought each candidate stood overall, not how they fared last week. Tsk. Tsk. Generally, I'm sticking to the weekly chatter:

Edwards
Great press week; ABC interview; not too much hostile counterfire from the Reptiles. A smooth rollout. Didn't get too chopped up about being a trial attorney (editor's note: But just wait 'til the Reptiles start morphing him into Johnnie Cochrane.) Good showing in new Zogby poll. As the tall moderate from the upper South, benefits from Gore's disappearing act.

Kerry
Slow week, not much press, which is bad. Slow week, not much press, which is good (editor's note: I sense a certain ambivalence here.) Some feeling that he remains the frontrunner, despite having no discernible muscles in his lower face.

Graham
The new death star..cough..I mean dark horse from the right wing of the party. Schmoozed with Iowa governor at Orange Bowl -- never hurts, never hurts. Family connections with the Sopranos..cough..I mean the Washington Post. Scares Republicans, but may just be angling for VP slot.

Gephardt Hair transplant fails; asks Joe Biden if they make eyebrow toupees. (the sponsors of this blog would like to apologize, etc. etc.) Some media coverage; slightly more sympathetic media coverage. Daschle's departure helps in Iowa, but odor of damaged goods still lingers.

Dean
The official dark horse looks a bit more like a horse of a different color. Gets a whopping 2% in recent poll. Gets AFL-CIO Paul Wellstone Award; remains to be seen whether he gets AFL-CIO Telephone Banks Dialing For You Award. Praise from Pat Cadell, so he's probably got the weird-aliens-from-Mars vote locked up. Decent appearance on Sunday press show; some confusion about which one. (editor's note: It was Face the Nation, the Meet the Press thing was so last year.)

Lieberman Tops Zogby poll, but only barely. Late announcing candidacy. Daschle exit helps, in some undefined way. Ability to raise truly massive quantities of soft and hard cash (editor's note: But is that enough to offset the Cadell endorsement?) Looks like a "Lieberman sock puppet." Despised by base, despite reasonably liberal voting record. No chance in Iowa.

Sharpton The Democratic Gary Bauer. Has a little problem with the FEC. (editor's note: Aren't all problems with the FEC little problems?) Could probably outpoll Louis Farrakhan.

Well, that about wraps it.

Unfortunately, Billmon's got a day job, and he's gotta get back to it, so I'm signing off. You've been a wunnerful audience, and I really mean that. Really.

OK, so I don't. I mean, the death threats and the killing my cat and the firebombing my car were all just a little over the top. But other than that, it's been a gas. One of these days, maybe I'll buy myself one of these blog thingies.

Ciao, baby.

Posted January 09, 2003 10:16 AM | Comments (37)