Second UN resolution dead in water

One of the Bush administration's mantras is "if we lead, people will follow". Hence, they refuse to work in consultation with allies (whether in the foreign or domestic arenas), fully expecting everyone to line up behind them once decisions are made.

This strategy is in full effect at the UN Security Council, where the administration is expressing confidence the US has the votes to pass a war-authorizing resolution.

"We are proceeding, we're pushing ahead," White House spokesman Ari Fleischer told reporters. "There is not metaphysical certainty about anything but our plan, everything we are doing, all our intentions and what we anticipate will indeed happen is this will be put to a vote in which the president remains confident in the outcome."

But as "boldly" as the administration may be pushing war, it seems the Security Council will have none of it, as Russia and France have both indicated they will veto the resolution.

Announcing the decision, French Foreign Minister Dominique de Villepin said the three countries also agreed to back more United Nations weapons inspections in Iraq.

"We will not allow the passage of a planned resolution which would authorize the use of force," he said after a meeting in Paris with his counterparts Igor Ivanov of Russia and Joschka Fischer of Germany.

"Russia and France as permanent security council members will fully assume all their responsibilities," he added at a joint news conference with Ivanov and Fischer.

So the question for the US is whether it can get nine "yes" votes to at least give its invasion a veneer of legitimacy.

Meanwhile, the situation in Turkey is FUBAR. The ruling party leader (and soon to be PM) Recep Tayyip Erdogan has indicated there will be a second vote in parliament. However, early indications are that this vote wouldn't take place for at least another two weeks -- forcing the Pentagon to either wait it out and hope for the best or divert the 4th ID, currently moored off the Turkish coast, south to Kuwait.

Yesterday, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the head of Turkey's ruling Justice and Development (AK) Party announced that the government would pursue another vote in parliament, but failed to specify when. In the interim, local by-elections on Sunday in the southeastern Turkish city of Siirt, would pave the way for Mr. Erdogan, who was banned from holding office until AK Party parliamentarians overturned laws that stood in his way, to become prime minister. Erdogan would probably need another week to install a new government and rally support for a second vote.

That could be two weeks too many.

Anyone know much about Turkish politics? Wouldn't promising a war vote hurt Erdogan's party in those local by-elections, given the Turkish public is over 90 percent opposed to war?

Posted March 05, 2003 08:39 AM | Comments (65)