Cattle Call 2004: 3/18

Last week's rankings: 1) Gephardt, 2) Kerry, 3) Dean, 4) Edwards, 5) Graham, 6) Graham, 7) Lieberman, 8) Sharpton, 9) Kucinich, 10) Moseley-Braun and others.

Some of the latest polls:

National (CNN/USA Today/Gallup, 3/14-15):
Gephardt 20
Kerry 16
Lieberman 15
Moseley Braun 8
Edwards 6
Dean 5
Sharpton 5
Graham 4
Kucinich 3
No one 3
Other 1
No opinion 14

Iowa (Research 2000):
Gephardt 22
Kerry 20
Lieberman 16

New Hampshire (Concord Monitor, 3/14):
Kerry 38
Lieberman 20
Dean 11
Edwards 4
Gephardt 4
Sharpton 1

South Carolina (Zogby 3/4-6):
Lieberman 12
Gephardt 10
Edwards 6
Kerry 5
Sharpton 4
Undecided 46

And for the main event:

1. John Kerry
He's back on the trail raising the huge bucks and giving well-received speeches. He said in Sacramento that his strength still waned in the evening, but his convention speech didn't give that impression.

2. Dick Gephardt
Boy, after two gangbusting weeks, Gephardt dissappeared into the nether. He avoided California, fearful of the reception he was sure to get. However, his poll showings are now besting Lieberman in the national "name ID" beauty contests, leads in Iowa and is in a statistical dead heat for first in South Carolina. While I'm sure those numbers won't hold through to the primaries, for now they are good enough to give Gephardt the #2 slot.

3. Howard Dean
His California performance was nothing short of amazing. So when do the Q1 fundraising reports come out?

4. John Edwards
Got booed for his war stance in Sacramento, but the rest of the speech was well received (if a bit long). He's moving his rhetoric to a more populist tone (son of a mill worker, went to public schools, etc) which is successfully countering the "trial lawyer" smears from the Right.

And the fact he was booed in California may very well be his "Sister Souljah" moment for his real target -- the Southern states. Still, single digits in South Carolina? Ouch.

5. Joe Lieberman
He skipped out in California, where he is hated as much for his sellout to war interests as well as his incessent moralizing. Perhaps a good tactical move, but it made him look weak and scared. His poll numbers -- his only cause for hope -- are dropping at an alarming rate. The trends is already clear -- as voters become aware of the other candidates, Lieberman is relegated to "afterthought" status.

6. Bob Graham
Much has been made of Graham's fundraising prowess, but his late entry into the race has to hurt those efforts. Graham has now missed the party's two most important early-year cattle calls -- the DNCs and the CDPs. The war, however, will give him the chance to play "elder statesman" while building his campaign organization.

7. Al Sharpton
I've done a complete 180 on this guy. He's not a viable candidate, but he's not claiming to be one. The issues he discusses are good ones, and his blistering attacks on Bush are second to none.

8. Kucinich
Joins Moseley-Braun in the "embarrassing" column.

9. Carol Moseley-Braun
Got no respect in Sacramento. The party's media people lied to us to get us to her Saturday press conference (they said Pelosi would show up "in a few minutes"). She wandered the halls all weekend, and obviously had nothing better to do with her time.

Others: Biden, Clark, and Hart. The window of opportunity for these guys is closing fast.

Posted March 18, 2003 09:16 AM | Comments (82)