Neck and neck in national polls

Things are getting really interesting, as half the candidates seem bunched up in the lead in Zogby's latest national poll (March numbers in parenthesis):

Undecided: 39 (37)
Gephardt: 12 (11)
Dean: 12 (4)
Lieberman: 12 (18)
Kerry: 9 (9)
Sharpton: 4 (4)
Edwards: 3 (4)
Braun: 2 (1)
Kucinich: 2 (1)
Graham: 1 (1)

Note that Dean's name ID is at a measly 39 percent. That is, 2/3rds of the national public still doesn't know he exists, yet he's tied for first.

Lieberman's name ID is at 82 percent, and Gephardt's at 75 percent. Kerry clocks on at 59 percent. So it's clear -- people know Dean in the early primary states, where he's spent most of his time, but he's still a relative unknown nationwide.

If there's any silver lining to Edward's dismal results, its that his name ID is only at 33 percent.

Geographically, the candidates fare thusly:

East:
Lieberman: 13
Dean: 13
Kerry: 4

South:
Gephardt: 15
Lieberman: 11
Kerry: 9
Dean: 5

Midwest
Gephardt: 15
Dean: 13
Lieberman: 11
Kerry: 8

West
Dean: 17
Kerry: 14
Gephardt: 12
Lieberman: 11

This part of the poll perplexes me:

More than two-thirds (69%) of the Democratic and Independent likely primary voters surveyed said it is likely that President George W. Bush will be re-elected, regardless of how they plan to vote. In March polling nationwide, 56% of the respondents thought he will be re-elected.

Bush is more beatable than ever, so why the sudden pessimism?

Posted July 29, 2003 10:39 AM