Why I think Davis will win the recall

I'll be contrarian, at least for a day, but I am increasingly optimistic that Davis pulls this thing off.

True, Arnold is getting all the attention and excitement right now, but that will inevitably fade as he gets hammered from both the Right and the Left. The rest of the candidates will struggle mightily to differentiate their name from the 250 or more names that will grace the ballot.

And wait for the ads (many of them negative) that will start gracing the California airwaves in the near future. I won't be able to watch an A's game in peace. This will all serve to add to the recall confusion.

But above all this we'll have Davis. One lone figure, unpopular as he may be, calling for calm and sanity. And by virtue of occupying the state's bully pulpit, Davis will be far more able to cut through the media clutter to deliver his message. (Arnold could too, but he has no message.)

Given the confusion of the process (which will only get worse as the next two months roll on), I see several groups of voters trudging to the polls this October -- 1) Davis haters, who will then split the votes amongst the four serious Republican candidates, and 2) Hardcore Democrats, who will vote no on recall, and yes for Bustamante.

If this race becomes a battle of the bases, Davis and the Dems win. This is California, after all. That's why Arnold's association with Pete Wilson, Prop. 187 and Enron are all so important.

Posted August 13, 2003 09:18 AM