August ARG numbers

While still within the +/- 4% MOE (barely), Dean has taken the lead in the latest ARG poll out of New Hampshire.

Undecided: 32 (July: 30; June: 23)
Dean: 28 (July: 19; June: 18)
Kerry: 21 (July: 25; June: 28)
Gephardt: 10 (July: 10; June: 10)
Lieberman: 4 (July: 6; June: 11)
Edwards: 2(July: 2; June: 4)
Graham: 2 (July: 2; June: 2)
Clark: 1 (July: 2; June: 1)
Braun: 0 (July: 1; June: 1)
Kucinich: 0 (July: 1; June: 1)
Sharpton: 0 (July: 1; June: 1)

The top four are now at or near 100 percent familiarity ratings.

The big winner is obviously Dean. Gephardt is even keel, and is currently in place for an important third-place finish in the state.

We talk about the expectations game, and the NH expectations are currently as follow: NH conclusively decides the Kerry/Dean battle. Whoever wins will represent the party's left wing, whoever finishes second is out. The third place finisher gets a huge momentum boost heading into the Feb. 3 primaries (SC, OK, DE, AZ, and NM).

Based on those CW expectations, these poll results are disastrous for both Kerry and Lieberman, not to mention Edwards.

Posted August 19, 2003 09:46 AM | Comments (216)