Is Bush Electable?

by RonK, Seattle

Per CNN poll results released this hour:

29% would definitely vote to re-elect Bush.

41% would definitely vote against Bush.

A potentially decisive remainder remains undecided.

This is huge. An incumbent President -- or an incumbent anything -- should muster re-elect numbers in the low 50's, or he's broadcasting signals of vulnerability.

Bush still prevails in hypothetical head-to-head match-ups against all comers ... but the trend is not W's friend.

Could anyone from Bush's own party try to grab the falling standard and run with it? It's awfully late in the game ... but don't be completely surprised if Bush faces Republican challenges from left, right and center. The objective? Not to win in 2004 ... but to stake "first mover advantage" claims to thematic leadership in a reconstructed GOP come 2006, 2008 or 2012.

Update: CNN/Time results now up on Polling Report , 883 registered voters, MOE 3.3%.

With the change from "adults" to "registered voters", this is a new polling series. By my interpretation, this is not a big surge in anti-Bush numbers. It's a big drop in "definite" pro-Bush numbers. In other words, ~1/4 of Bush supporters are suddenly open to competing bids.

Also Ipsos-Reid "re"-elect numbers are 38-36 in W's favor, flirting with all-time lows. Right/wrong track numbers are drifting south as well.

Posted September 05, 2003 01:21 PM | Comments (193)