Dems inching up in the only CA poll that matters

The latest Field Poll will be released later Tuesday, but some of the numbers have been released (August results in parenthesis):

Davis Recall

Yes: 55 (58)
No: 40 (37)

Replacement Ballot

Bustamante: 35 (25)
Schwarzenegger: 30 (22)
McClintock: 13 (9)
Ueberroth: 5 (5)
Huffington: 3 (4)

I'll update this post when the full poll results are released.

Note that this poll is likely more reliable than the national polls showing Arnold with a big lead, and the LA Times poll, showing Bustamante with the big lead. As I wrote a few weeks ago, the Field Poll is probably the most accurate poll in the entire country, and its results must be taken seriously.

Update: Undecideds have remained steady in both versions of the poll. It looks as though Bustamante and Arnold have risen by a combination of Simon exiting the race, and support coalescing amongst the frontrunners. One very interesting poll detail:

Replacement Ballot, without McClintock

Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) 33
Cruz Bustamante (D) 31
Peter Ueberroth (R) 7
Arianna Huffington (I) 3
Peter Miguel Camejo (G) 2

In other words, McClintock's 13 percent goes as follow: 8 points to Arnold, 1 point to Bustamante (if that makes sense), 2 points to Uberroth, and 2 percent back in the "undecided" column. Expect the pressure to rise accordingly on McClintock to exit the race.

Poll results (PDF)

Posted September 09, 2003 12:22 AM | Comments (68)