Latest Fox poll

Latest Fox national poll (August numbers in parenthesis):

Not sure: 26 (25)
Kerry: 17 (13)
Lieberman: 16 (18)
Dean: 14 (11)
Gephardt: 6 (12)
Edwards: 4 (3)
Braun: 3 (4)
Graham: 3 (2)
Kucinich: 2 (2)
Sharpton: 2 (5)

What's interesting is this email I got from Kelley Benander in Kerry's press office:

In a FOX News national poll of registered voters released today, John Kerry scored first among Democrats with 17% of the vote.  This is the second national poll in a row that shows Kerry taking the lead, building off a successful four state announcement tour last week.  (national CNN/Time poll of registered Democrats September 5 showed Kerry taking the lead nationally).

Nothing wrong with boasting about a poll showing your guy in the lead. But what's with the "second national poll in a row" line? Ever since that CNN/Time poll, a Zogby poll has given Dean the national lead and a Gallup poll has given Gephardt the lead.

In reality, these national polls have high MOEs, and the small sample sizes are giving us a great deal of volatility across various polls, and even within different editions of the same poll (like Lieberman's numbers in the Gallup poll).

If I had to guess, I would say that nationally we have a four-way tie between Dean, Gephardt, Kerry, and Lieberman. But we don't have a national primary, so these polls are best at gauging momentum, and are not predictive of electoral success.

For that, we have to look at the early primary state-specific polls.

Posted September 13, 2003 08:48 AM | Comments (90)