Shaheen's surge continues unabated

A new American Research Group poll shows good news all around for NH Democrats.

The US Senate race between John Sununu and Jeanne Shaheen is now too close to call (48% Sununu to 46% Shaheen) as the attacks on Sununu are working among undeclared voters. Republicans continue to lead in the other 3 races.

Keep in mind that the ARG polls have consistently given Sununu his best numbers among independent polls.

October 20-22
Sununu 48
Shaheen 46

October 14-16
Sununu 51
Shaheen 43

September 30 - October 2
Sununu 55
Shaheen 34

September 14-18
Sununu 47
Shaheen 38

The fact that ARG shows this race in a statistical dead heat is bad news for Sununu. Furthermore, Sen. Bob Smith's grudge against Sununu continues unabated, ensuring that several grassroot efforts on behalf of the ousted senator will continue.

Sen. Bob Smith (R-N.H.) has rebuffed several appeals from President Bush's top political adviser, Karl Rove, to bury the hatchet with the man who ousted him in the primary, GOP Rep. John Sununu, undercutting Republican claims ofsolidarity in the Granite State and potentially hurting the party's chances to retain his seat.

Three write-in campaigns being mounted by die-hard Smith supporters could also cause problems for the GOP. While not likely to garner many votes, even a small number could make all the difference in the extremely tight battle between Sununu and Gov. Jeanne Shaheen (D).

There is a great deal of bad blood between the Sununu and Smith camps, exemplified by this incident:

[Writeinsmith.com] got some attention in early October when its treasurer, Judy Gosselin, alleged that a Sununu campaign worker had torn down their signs along Bush's motorcade route in Manchester.

A cameraman who had accompanied Gosselin filmed the incident, and she later handed the film over to police. Gosselin has since attempted to negotiate a settlement with the Sununu campaign.

But, according to Scott, the Sununu campaign has refused to negotiate. [Sununu spokeswoman] Teer would not comment beyond saying that the campaign was still "gathering all the facts."

A Manchester police spokesman said that the investigation was ongoing and that the department was simply waiting for Gosselin to come in and sign a complaint against the Sununu worker.

Even if the write-in efforts only garner several thousand votes (or keep several thousand die-hard Smith supporters at home election day) it will be enough to hand Shaheen the seat. And to hear Smith backers talk, they would actually welcome a Shaheen victory, viewing it as a big middle finger at a White House that engineered Smith's ouster. (Which makes you wonder whether these same groups will also work to sabotage Bush's 2004 campaign in the swing state.)

(Thanks Political Wire.)

Posted October 24, 2002 08:02 AM | Comments (28)