More on GOTV efforts

AR of Lubbock writes:

The latest CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll has an interesting twist regarding the generic congressional ballot. As shown on Polling Report, the Democrats lead 49-46 among "likely" voters, whereas the Democrats have a huge 50-41 lead among "registered" voters. As you can see on the Polling Report archive of CNN/USA Today/Gallup Polls, which goes all the way back to June 2001, the recent nine-point Democratic lead among registered voters is the largest of this whole election cycle. What this suggests to me is that, if the turnout is broader than what this poll's "likely voter" profile implies (thus making the actual voter population look more like registered voters), then the Democrats could be on the verge of some degree of national "bounce" in voting for the House.

Again, this goes to the crux of the whole GOTV issue, and why the GOP fears high voter turnout. The general populace is by far Democratic leaning, but most Dem supporters will never register, much less likely vote. Amongst registered voters, the Dems still enjoy a healthy lead, but it narrows amongst likely voters. The definition of "likely voter" changes according to the pollster, but is generally someone who has voted in the past few elections (I think Zogby pegs it at the past three elections).

Given the strong Dem effort at identifying new voters, registering them, and driving them to the polls (as evidence by the early voting numbers in IA and TX), this election has the potential to completely up-end conventional wisdom and even most poll results. Given that Dems have parity in most of the key races (and some of the second-tier races like NC and TN) amongst "likely voters", I'm confident that Dems will end up picking up more seats in the Senate and House than the conventional wisdom indicates thanks to its superior GOTV efforts.

Posted October 24, 2002 02:05 PM | Comments (14)