Endangered Democratic governor seats

Now that Hirono is safe in Hawaii, there are only two Democratic governorships in critical danger of party change. The NH race is all but over. That pickup should be one of the lone bright spots for the GOP on a bleak night for the Right.

The other is Alabama, where the latest non-partison poll (Univ. of Alabama's USA Polling Group) gives GOP challenger Bob Riley a 44-40 lead over Dem guv Don Siegelman. Those numbers represent a statistical tie, of course.

The pollster notes that support for both candidates is soft, and that victory will be decided by the candidates' voter turnout operation.

(Talk about a common refrain... every post I include the phrases "within the margin of error" and "get out the vote". Perhaps I should post on Sen. Warner's unopposed election just to break out of that rut!)

Speaking of endangered Dem governorships, there are a few. In addition to NH and Alabama, South Carolina is precarious (though that latest Survey USA poll has him leading by 3 points -- 50-47). Alaska and Maryland bring up the rear. Alaska is astonishingly likely to stay Dem, while Maryland is perhaps my biggest disappointment of the campaign season. I once considered Kathleen Kennedy-Townsend as VP material, but after seeing her struggle to win the governorship in an overwhelmingly Democratic state, I've had to conclude otherwise. She is an inept campaigner. Sigh.

And for those of you keeping score, the Dems will garner guvernatorial pickups in Arizona, Illinois, Kansas(!), Maine, Michigan, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and Wisconsin. And, Dems have good shots in Arkansas, Florida, Massachusetts, Minnesota (post-Wellstone), Tennessee, and Wyoming.

I'll go for broke predicting a +10-11 Dem pickup. If I'm wrong, rake me over the fire Nov. 6.

Posted October 28, 2002 05:37 PM | Comments (19)